6 Top mistakes right now on the Jr circuit

I’ve been seeing a lot of the same kinds of mistakes in my travels along the circuit the past year or so. Here are the top 5 I am seeing. If you are making these, they are leaks that you can plug to increase your success.

1. Lack of stack awareness / ICM considerations:
ICM comes into play in the end game but is a related topic so I included them together. The increase in the number of truly deep stack events (not the BS turbos at the local spots) such as the HPT, WPT / Deepstacks, Ante Up, and WSOP Circuit ME, the need to understand stack dynamics has increased. What hasn’t, however, is player knowledge in this area. Every event I see players stacking off 200 plus BB with one pair hands because they simply aren’t aware of how hand strengths change relative to stack depth.

In the end stages, I see so many horrible ICM mistakes it makes the head spin. Yesterday in Reno the player second in chips with 19 left and 18 paying decided it was a great spot to run a multi-barrel, OOP bluff against the player 3rd in chips. This player was the only one at his table that could hurt the player. He lost 90% of his stack and after surviving one shove bricked the second and bubbled. This kind of error is about as costly as you can make. This player had final table chips and decided to set them on fire.

One area where players should be relatively decent is 25-10BB. You will spend the grand majority of daily casino events in this range and a good portion of most tournaments here as well. It is vital to understand shoving and calling ranges, etc. but it is lost on many players. I can’t count how many times I saw players with less than 20 BB limping in from early and getting blown off hands, not realizing they are committing 10-20% of their stack. Also, many players don’t understand how starting hand values change as chip stacks change. Most of this is math centered stuff and covered in many books and videos. If you find trouble with these concepts I would recommend spending some time studying.

2. Calling too liberally in the blinds:
Perhaps the biggest fallacy in poker is that someone is raising “your blind”. This is not yours. You have a forced bet and that money is already in the pot. Way too often in these deep stack events I see blinds calling single EP raises and losing big pots when they flop middle pair type hands and feel compelled they are good. There are plenty of good reasons to play your blinds, especially if the action is multi-way and your hand plays well in such a spot and you have the proper odds. Also, when the antes come in playing the blinds makes much more sense. The blinds (unless SB vs BB) are always going to be at a positional disadvantage so your hand ranges need to reflect that. Players are especially too loose in the SB. If you find yourself losing a lot of pots from the blinds, especially with weak paired hands this is a spot to really look to tighten up.

3. Calling 3 bets too liberally from OOP:

This one happens all the time. I see a player in MP raise and they are faced with a CO or Button three bet. In addition to probably not paying attention to stack dynamics (#1), players are not paying attention to player types and ranges. If the three betting player is very aggressive, etc., then your three bet calling range should be a little wider. However, when the 100 year old guy that hasn’t played a hand since the Clinton Administration three bets you, unless you raise with a monster, probably wise to fold. Even pairs to a player like this may not be calls, especially if Old Man Never Plays Anything but AA and KK takes a somewhat passive flop, turn, and river line or won’t put in more money after getting called flop, because the implied odds are not there.

4: Way too loose early, way too tight late:

This is in reference to both your position on the table as well as the time in the tournament. I see way too often players that play way too loose in EP and also too tight or passive in late position which is a toxic cocktail for early tournament exits. The power of position in big bet games like NL Hold Em is well documented. If you find yourself very often playing weak hands from OOP, you should start to reconsider your EP starting requirements. If you don’t find yourself more often than not playing pots in position, you should also start to reconsider your LP starting requirements.

In terms of game flow, I see many players throwing too many chips around early. There are certainly players that are successful with this strategy but they are almost all very skilled post flop and at putting opponents on ranges effectively. Tight is generally right early on, especially before you have a table read. Consequently, at the time when antes come in and pots become truly worth fighting for, too many players go passive. They see that elusive money bubble just up the road and don’t want to risk it. Unfortunately, these players are destined for a min cash at best. When the antes kick in, there is more money in the pot and therefore the risk / reward thresholds should change for you. If you find yourself either busting very early in events or getting deep but never much past the money bubble, you should look at how you are playing in various stages and make the proper adjustments.

5. Bet sizing tells:
This is the holy grail of common mistakes I see. There are so many players that have huge betting tells. A lot of players take an excessive amount of time trying to soul read, see the twitch, etc. that they miss the much more common and useful tells of betting. I’ve personally never found physical tells all that important, mostly because they tend to be rare, are not universal, and may never come into play if you don’t play against the player a lot. Betting tells, however, are much more numerous and although not 100% universal, have tendencies that carry over. Many players change their pre flop raise size based on hand strength. This helps with establishing what range of hands you should play against them and when to properly three bet them. Their flop, turn, and river bets are equally telling, and you can also learn which players are afraid of playing flop, turn, and river and again tailor your hands accordingly.

There are many valid reasons to change your bet sizing, such as board texture, # and type of opponents in the hand, etc., but your hand strength should never be the #1 factor, and usually should only be considered after going over all the other factors at hand. If you find your value bets not getting called enough and your bluffs called a lot, this is an area where you should do some study.

6. The Formula:
Every player has an overall style, but successful players change to take advantage of their surroundings. They know when to get more aggressive, and when to throttle back. They know when its profitable to play a junk hand and when to dump medium and even strong hands. Playing a One Size Fits All approach works in conjunction with #5. Everything you do becomes a tell. For example, if you donk bet every time you flop middle pair from the BB, smart players will adjust and you will be faced with more difficult decisions because you won’t know where you are after a three bet or smooth call.

There are many other mistakes I’ve seen recently but I see these the most often and I think these are all pretty easily correctable with some introspection and study.